Showing posts with label polar ice. Show all posts
Showing posts with label polar ice. Show all posts

Monday, 26 March 2012

Disconnects in Logic (6) - 34 "Is not nearly as much" as 502

Earthsky blogger Daniel Tennant relays some good news and some not-so-good news (but which does he think is "good"?)
Most sea level rise due to melting polar ice, study confirms   
Researchers report that Earth’s polar regions are losing 502 billion tons of water annually out of the total amount 536 billion tons lost annually worldwide.
Scientists published results in a February 2012 issue of Nature that reveal a detailed picture of how Earth’s glacier regions have changed over the last eight years. In previous publications, GRACE satellite data confirmed that Earth’s polar regions are the major contributors to rising sea levels. The recent publication focuses on the high mountain areas, such as the Himalayas and Andes, and shows that these ecosystems are remarkably robust: they are not losing nearly as much water to the ocean as the polar regions.
That's good news, I'd say, and an E grade for all the glaciologists and others who've been predicting the imminent demise of glaciers in "high mountain areas" for years. A little later, we're shown this graphic

Map showing the September ice extent in the Arctic in 1980, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. The magenta line indicates the median September ice extent for the period 1979-2000. Image Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center Sea Ice Index:
From simple visual evidence, if nothing else, it is clear that our polar glacier regions are depleting due to melting ice. 
Arctic report card for 2011
The "polar glacier regions", aren't shown, just the Arctic, and this is graphic data for sea ice, and has nothing to do with sea level. Sea ice has no net effect on sea level, freezing or melting. No glaciers are shown. It's certainly not clear from that graphic that "our polar glacier regions are depleting due to melting ice". Why were we given this irrelevant information and erroneous conclusion?

After this slip, band some details of how the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites work, we get the "bottom line" (my bold)
Bottom line: A publication in Nature in February 2012 presents the results of an analysis of GRACE satellite data, showing that high mountain areas, such as the Himalayas and Andes, are not losing nearly as much water to the ocean as Earth's polar regions.
Shhuurely he means ice not water? If "the polar regions are losing 502 billion tons of water annually out of the total amount 536 billion tons lost annually worldwide" then how can the 32 billion tons from mountain glaciers be termed "not nearly as much" as 502 billion tons? The 32 is 6.8% of 502, or about one-fifteenth. Did he write this piece before he saw the figures? Was he disappointed when he saw them? Does his brain work logarithmically? Why did he spoil a perfectly good article with a superfluous add-on, an unsubstantiated claim, and a flawed sense of proportion (in the true sense)? Why do I get worked up about this kind of thing?

If you have any of the answers, please let him know, I'm past caring.

Monday, 11 July 2011

The Battle of the Bulge

National Geographic News tells us:

Earth Has "Spare Tire"—And Ice Melt's Keeping It That Way 
Waistline bulge has stopped slimming, thanks to massive melting.
Earth isn't losing its "spare tire" as fast as it should be, according to new research—and it's definitely not because the planet's not getting enough water.
In fact, melting ice from Antarctica and Greenland (map) is giving the oceans huge infusions of water, which then gets pulled toward the Equator—counteracting a millennia-old slimming trend around the planet's middle, experts say. 
.....
Overall, the current ice loss is causing Earth's bulge to grow at a rate of seven millimeters a decade, Wahr and Nerem found—exactly enough to counteract the long-term rebound, at least temporarily.

This must mean that sea-level rise in the equatorial regions is higher than elsewhere, so let's look at a few places. The largest open body of water is the Pacific ocean, and Hawaii isn't that far from the equator (21°N)